Home Prices Just Dipped—Are They Poised To Plummet This Fall?

For the past two-plus years, home prices were unstoppable. Buyers watched in horror as they swiftly ratcheted ever higher from one month to the next—and bidding wars drove these price tags up even further.

But higher mortgage interest rates have since poured cold water on the red-hot housing market, forcing it into a correction as buyers reached their financial limits.

As it turns out, what goes up may have to come down—even if by just a little.

“House prices are rolling over,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “They’re going from straight north to going sideways and, I expect, would be going south in the not too distant future, certainly by this time next year.”

Just take a look at what’s happened this summer: Sale prices of existing homes fell by $10,000, to a median of $413,800 in July, compared with a month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors®. (Existing homes do not include new construction.) However, prices were still up 10.8% year over year in July.

“We are going to see prices drop as we do seasonally,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. (Home prices typically peak in June and then begin to dip.) “We tend to see smaller homes and sellers who are more willing to make a deal [in July]. In general, there are fewer buyers because they’re on vacation, getting ready for back to school, they’ve already found a home or decided to extend their rental.”

But, Hale adds, “I don’t think it’s likely for home prices to fall significantly. Prices are still growing [annually] by double digits. We have a long way to go before we see prices decline.”